Mohamed Salah form watch: goals, xG and what to expect this weekend

In brief:

  • Mohamed Salah’s goal-scoring form has dipped in the early weeks of the 2025/26 Premier League season, with only two goals from seven matches and none from open play since the opening game.
  • His expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes have dropped nearly by half compared to the previous season, signaling fewer high-quality opportunities being created.
  • The departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold has disrupted Salah’s supply line, cutting down the prolific link-ups and chances created from the right flank.
  • Despite the dip in personal numbers, Liverpool remain competitive in the Premier League, just a point behind Arsenal, but the team is adjusting to a new tactical dynamic under Arne Slot.
  • Fans can expect Salah to regain form as Liverpool faces less daunting opponents in the following fixtures, with his characteristic clinical finishing likely to return.

Mohamed Salah’s Goal Production Decline and Impact on Liverpool FC’s Attack

The 2025/26 Premier League season presents an intriguing puzzle: Mohamed Salah, Liverpool FC’s emblematic forward and talisman, has seen his scintillating goal-scoring form markedly diminish. After an electrifying 2024/25 campaign where he produced a staggering 34 goals and 23 assists across all competitions, Salah now faces a challenging period with just two goals from seven league matches and none from open play since the opening fixture.

This slump is reflected in his expected goals (xG) metric, a reliable indicator of scoring opportunities quality and volume. Salah’s xG per 90 minutes stands at a stark 0.32 this season, almost 50% lower than last year’s 0.63. Essentially, the quantity and quality of chances he is receiving inside the box have tapered off significantly. This is alarming given his prior ability to convert even half-chances into goals with clinical precision.

In practical terms, the pressure on Liverpool’s attack has escalated as their primary goal threat’s output diminishes. Opponents are adapting to Arne Slot’s side, reducing the spaces Salah once exploited with ease. Liverpool’s overall approach might be contributing as the team experiments with a slightly different style, integrating new signings and adjusting for the loss of key players.

The impact goes beyond statistics; examples are glaring on recent matchdays. At Stamford Bridge, Salah’s missed opportunities, including presentable chances in the final moments, contributed to Liverpool’s 2-1 stoppage-time defeat — a painful scenario for the Egyptian forward who once thrived against his former club Chelsea.

This decline in effectiveness has Liverpool fans and analysts questioning how the Reds can reignite their attacking potency, especially when facing title contenders. Salah’s current form isn’t merely an individual issue; it influences how Liverpool crafts their offensive scenarios and siege opposing defenses.

Metric2024/25 Season2025/26 Season So Far
Games Played5210
Goals per 90 Minutes0.680.32
Assists per 90 Minutes0.460.32
Total Shots per 903.42.0
xG per 900.630.32
Shot Conversion Rate20.2%15.8%

How Trent Alexander-Arnold’s Departure Has Affected Salah’s Performance

One of the most significant shifts affecting Salah’s current form has been the departure of Trent Alexander-Arnold to Real Madrid. Their partnership on Liverpool’s right flank was not just effective; it was integral to the Reds’ attacking framework. Last season, Alexander-Arnold played a pivotal role in creative buildup, delivering a record 147 line-breaking passes (LBPs) to Salah in the Premier League alone — a metric that measures passes penetrating the opposition’s defensive lines.

This staggering figure was unmatched by any other duo across Europe’s top leagues, underscoring the unique understanding and synergy between the two. With Alexander-Arnold’s exit, the supply line to Salah has inevitably weakened, as the new right-back options have yet to replicate this creative contribution.

Currently, Liverpool’s LBPs and overall offensive patterns show a shift. Players like Dominik Szoboszlai have begun to fill creative roles from midfield, but their combined 23 LBPs to Salah don’t match the previous volume. Meanwhile, substitutes and younger defenders like Conor Bradley and Jeremie Frimpong have struggled to consistently replicate the precise, daring balls that Trent was famed for.

The statistical comparison illustrates the gulf:

  • Alexander-Arnold to Salah line-breaking passes in 2024/25: 147
  • Dominik Szoboszlai to Salah in 2025/26 (so far): 23
  • Conor Bradley to Salah in 5 games: 8 (with debatable attacking threat)

This disruption arguably impacts Salah’s expected assists (xA), passing options, and overall involvement in attacking sequences.

PlayerLine-Breaking Passes to Salah (PL 24/25-25/26)Pass Volume
Trent Alexander-Arnold (2024/25)147High
Dominik Szoboszlai (2025/26)23Moderate
Conor Bradley (2025/26)8Low/Non-Threatening

Liverpool still lead in total LBPs as a team in the Premier League but targeting Salah with that kind of precision is a different prospect. This makes it harder for Salah to find his characteristic positions within the box, reflected by his touches inside the opposition’s area plummeting from 9.6 to 5.5 per 90 minutes.

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Analyzing Salah’s Shot Map, Dribbling and Expected Goals (xG)

Behind the headlines and raw numbers, Salah’s in-game positioning and decision-making have evolved, possibly in reaction to opposing defenses and tactical changes by Liverpool. A remarkable shift can be observed from his shot map and dribbling stats, underpinning his diminished threat in the final third.

Last season, Salah averaged an aggressive 3.5 dribbles per 90 minutes with an impressive 39.3% success rate; this gave him freedom to carve spaces and unleash shots. Yet in the current campaign, his dribble attempts have dropped to 1.6 per 90 with a meager 20% success rate. In the Premier League alone, his one successful take-on out of 11 attempts (9.1%) starkly contrasts his historical 42.3% dribble success rate.

This could be due to increased defensive tightness from full-backs or a less confident Salah, as well as a more predictable positioning by players tracking him. He is now predominantly receiving the ball near the right touchline further from the prime scoring zones, limiting the range and angles of his goal attempts.

The reduction in shots per 90 from 3.4 to 2.0 and the dip in xG to 0.32 reflect this spatial restriction and fewer opportunities around the penalty area. It’s a recent phenomenon that not only restricts his goal threat but also his creativity and unpredictability.

Statistic2024/252025/26
Dribbles per 903.51.6
Dribble Success Rate39.3%20%
Shots per 903.42.0
xG per 900.630.32
Touches in Opponent Box per 909.65.5

Despite these challenges, his assist metrics have remained steady, with expected assists per 90 almost unchanged, reflecting his continued vision and passing accuracy in creating big chances for teammates such as Ryan Gravenberch. His inch-perfect crosses and clever passes remain valuable assets Liverpool can leverage.

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Team Dynamics, Tactical Adjustments, and the Bigger Picture on Salah’s Roles

Liverpool’s adaptation under Arne Slot is another angle in the assessment of Salah’s current form. The manager has crafted a team that emphasizes structured pressing and intricate link-ups, but the squad has undergone notable changes that complicate Salah’s influence.

The addition of star players like Florian Wirtz and Alexander Isak was meant to supplement Salah, adding fresh options in the final third. However, the transition period means the intricate understanding that powered Liverpool’s swift attacks is still in formation.

With lost chemistry on the right due to Alexander-Arnold’s exit, Liverpool has shifted some attacking thrusts to other zones, but Salah’s fixed positioning near the right touchline makes him more predictable to defenders. This reconfiguration challenges his natural game, dictating fewer touches closer to goal and limiting his explosive contributions.

Physical and emotional factors play their part too. Losing close teammate Diogo Jota earlier in the year has weighed heavily on Salah, as reflected in the deeply emotional scenes at Anfield. Football, after all, is a human drama, and such grief can resonate beyond statistics.

  • Team has highest Progressive Passes again but fewer target Salah directly.
  • Salah’s successful passes from the right wing stand at 81.75% accuracy, yet fewer passes reach dangerous zones where he can strike.
  • Despite a dip in direct output, Salah contributes effectively to build-up play, with overall passing accuracy around 72.8%.
Passing TypeSuccessful PassesSuccess Rate (%)
Low Pass (Diagonal)11286.82
Throw-ins4100
Corners1100
Passes from Final Third9175.21
Passes from Right Wing11281.75
Overall Passing Accuracy72.82

Such data suggests Salah plays a pivotal role not only as a finisher but as a creative outlet and link player. It’s crucial Liverpool rediscover the touch and timing that made Salah lethal while maximizing the new stars on the roster to adjust the attacking blueprint.

The full implications are still unfolding, but the crowd at Anfield and supporters worldwide remain hopeful. With his blend of skill, dedication, and experience, Mohamed Salah is expected to turn the tide back in Liverpool FC’s favor soon.

Anticipated Performances and What to Expect in Upcoming Premier League Fixtures

Looking ahead to this weekend’s Premier League fixtures, Mohamed Salah and Liverpool FC face crucial opportunities to reinvigorate their attack and climb the table. Following a stern early run — with five of seven opponents now comfortably in the top eight of the league — the Reds will meet less formidable adversaries, including a pivotal clash against 10th-placed Manchester United.

This easing of competition spells potential for Salah to find more space, more touches inside the box, and in turn, more devastating moments reminiscent of his peak form. History suggests that Salah thrives when the pressure is balanced and his team lines up with the right supply routes.

Key factors that could influence Salah’s performance this weekend include:

  • An enhanced relationship with Florian Wirtz, who has started to create chances for Salah, despite needing time to perfect their understanding.
  • Improved tactical use of wide areas to ensure Salah is not isolated on the flank but more centrally positioned or supported by midfield arrivals.
  • Psychological resilience and hunger from Salah to respond to a tough start — the Egyptian king has bounced back spectacularly from dips before.
  • Utilization of Nike and Adidas boots tech to enhance his acceleration and shooting precision, critical in tight matches.
  • Greater involvement from BT Sport and Sky Sports in real-time performance analytics may help the club strategize on optimizing Salah’s impact during games.
Upcoming OpponentOpponent’s Current League PositionLikelihood of Salah Scoring (Based on Past Trends)
Manchester United10thHigh
Leicester City15thModerate
Brighton & Hove Albion5thModerate
Southampton (EFL Cup fixture)N/AHigh

Given these dynamics, Liverpool’s goal-scoring machine is poised for a resurgence. Fans can expect Salah to spike his goal involvements and escalate Liverpool FC’s quest for successive Premier League titles.

For more insights into Liverpool’s cup clashes and tactical swings, check out the detailed analysis of Liverpool vs Southampton League Cup clash and the smart tactical breakdown on Liverpool’s system here.

Stay tuned to The Football Cube’s coverage as the season unfolds, melding passionate football storytelling with sharp data insights from Opta and energized commentary by BT Sport and Sky Sports. With technology partners like EA Sports, Castore, Nike, and Adidas contributing to the game’s evolution on and off the pitch, the excitement surrounding Salah’s comeback can only grow.

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